Unit convenor and teaching staff |
Unit convenor and teaching staff
Unit Convenor
Edward Watts
Contact via edward.watts@mq.edu.au
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Credit points |
Credit points
4
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Prerequisites |
Prerequisites
ACST603 or AFIN858 or (4cp in ACCG or ACST or BUS or MKTG units at 600 level) or (admission to MActPrac or MCom or MEc or MIntBus prior to 2011)
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Corequisites |
Corequisites
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Co-badged status |
Co-badged status
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Unit description |
Unit description
The aim of this unit is to investigate, from both a theoretical and applied perspective, the role of forecasting in the investment and financing decisions of corporations. Why do corporations need forecasts, what methods do they use to generate and evaluate forecasts, and what weight do they place on forecasts in decision making? Both short term and long term forecasting activities are examined.
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Information about important academic dates including deadlines for withdrawing from units are available at https://www.mq.edu.au/study/calendar-of-dates
On successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:
Name | Weighting | Due |
---|---|---|
Class Test | 10% | Week 4 |
Class Tests | 60% | Weeks 7, 10, 13 |
Presentation | 15% | Allocated week |
Assessed Coursework | 15% | Week 13 |
Due: Week 4
Weighting: 10%
The 1 hour in-class Minor Test will be a hands-on exercise based on one or more similar exercises encountered in the material from weeks 1 to 3. Students can only take up to 10 A4 pages of hand written notes, double sided, into the test. These notes are to be in your own hand writing, and are not to be photo-copies or reduced.
No extensions will be granted. Students who have not submitted the task prior to the deadline will be awarded a mark of 0 for the task, except for cases in which an application for special consideration is made and approved.
Due: Weeks 7, 10, 13
Weighting: 60%
Throughout the semester there is a series of 3 Major in-class Tests. Each 1 hour in-class Test will be a hands-on exercise based on one or more similar exercises encountered in class. The first in the series is based on the material from weeks 4 to 6 and is held in week 7; the second in the series is based on the material from weeks 7 to 9 and is held in week 10; and the third in the series is based on the material from weeks 10 to 12 and is held in week 13. Each test in the series of 3 is worth 20%, and the total value of the series is 60%. Students can only take up to 10 A4 pages of hand written notes, double sided, into the test. These notes are to be in your own hand writing, and are not to be photo-copies or reduced.
No extensions will be granted. Students who have not submitted the task prior to the deadline will be awarded a mark of 0 for the task, except for cases in which an application for special consideration is made and approved.
Due: Allocated week
Weighting: 15%
Students will be placed into groups of 4 initially (this number might need to be adjusted in cases), and these groups will be assigned to a week and end-of-chapter exercises. This will be a hands-on exercise and the group is expected to upload a solution to the exercise onto iLearn prior to the class, and to demonstrate the solution to the class in a 30 to 45 minute presentation. The presentation should be as interactive as possible. The group should show the steps involved in solving the exercise: interpreting the information given; identifying and estimating relationships; entering both data and equations on the spreadsheet; explaining the assumptions and results to users; etc. The report - soft copies of spreadsheet, word files, and overheads - is worth 10%. A cover sheet on the uploaded report, which will not be disclosed to the class, should weight the contribution of each group member to the Report, summing to 100%. All students must be involved in the presentation as an individual mark, worth 5%, is allocated for each individual's performance in the presentation.
No extensions will be granted. Students who have not submitted the task prior to the deadline will be awarded a mark of 0 for the task, except for cases in which an application for special consideration is made and approved.
Due: Week 13
Weighting: 15%
During the Unit five real world applications (case studies) will be discussed in detail during class. Students will be required to summarise the key insights and issues highlighted by each of these applications in no more than two A4 pages per application. These are to be completed by students as an individual task - not as group work. Students are encouraged to complete each summary shortly after reflecting on the class discussion. Prior to the week 13 class (by 12 noon on June 11) students should combine the five summaries into one journal, and upload a soft copy (in Word) to TURNITIN through iLearn. No hard copy of the journal is required.
No extensions will be granted. Students who have not submitted the task prior to the deadline will be awarded a mark of 0 for the task, except for cases in which an application for special consideration is made and approved.
No extensions will be granted. Students who have not submitted the task prior to the deadline will be awarded a mark of 0 for the task, except for cases in which an application for special consideration is made and approved.
Classes
The Unit involves 3 hours face-to-face teaching per week consisting of a 3 hour seminar. The class is held in a computer lab allowing a combination of Lecture time and Hands-on activities. The timetable for classes can be found on the University web site at: http://www.timetables.mq.edu.au/
The class is held on Wednesday in Room E4B 214 from 12noon to 3pm.
Required and Recommended Texts and/or Materials
Prescribed
James Morris and John Daley. “ Introduction to Financial Models for Management and Planning” ISBN: 9781420090543. Chapman and Hall/CRC Finance Series The prescribed text can be purchased from the Macquarie University Co-op Bookshop.
Recommended
The Flaw Of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk In The Face Of Uncertainty, Sam Savage,
Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability & Statistical Inference. Lawrence Dworsky, John Wiley & Sons, 2008.
Monte Carlo Methods in Finance. Peter Jackel. John Wiley & Sons, 2002. Other resources will be provided through ilearn.
Unit Web Page
The unit Web site is only available to students enrolled in AFIN890. It will be available from Sunday 2nd March. Students will be able to access the unit web page by the use of their normal university user/password details. Please contact the IT Help Desk if you have any difficulties accessing the unit web page:
Phone: (02) 9850 HELP (4357)
Option 1 or Freecall: 1800 063 191
Face to Face: IT Help Desk, C5C244 24/7
Email: help@mq.edu.au
The Website will contain important unit materials, including:
This is very much a hands-on course. The nature of the material is best learnt by practising the development of models, learning from mistakes, and discovering your own short cuts and styles. For this reason the lectures are conducted in the computer labs with practise exercises interspersed throughout the lecture. Further, the software enables the student to visualise the effect of unertainty on various theoretical relationships in finance, and thus is helpful in enabling a student to understand both the strengths and limitations of corporate finance theories. Given the hands-on nature of the Unit, the majority of the assessment tasks are conducted with the student accessing a computer and relevant software.
Technology Used and Required
The course uses @RISK, possibly the most widely used modelling software in industry.A version of @RISK is installed in the computer lab, and students will be able to access these computers during the class. Also, a time limited version of @RISK is attached to the text, if students want to practice at home.
1. No final exam. This has been replaced by three in-class tests. The primary reason for this change is to allow the material to be tested on the computer, using excel and @RISK, complementing the hands-on nature of the Unit.
2. One extra topic on portfolio creation using the software.
Week | Date | Topic |
Chapter from Morris-Daley |
Problems |
1 |
Mar 5 |
Introduction: Modelling and Forecasting |
1 |
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2 |
Mar 12 |
Financial Analysis |
2 |
Pr 2.2 |
3 |
Mar 19 |
Growth and Cash Flows JOURNAL: Application 1 |
3 |
Pr 3.3 |
4 |
Mar 26 |
TEST 1 Financial Statement Simulation |
4 |
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5 |
Apr 2 |
Monte Carlo Simulation JOURNAL: Application 2 |
5 |
PRESENTATION 1 Pr 4.3 |
6 |
Apr 9 |
Time Trend Simulation Industry and Economy-Wide Relationships |
6 and 7 |
PRESENTATION 2 Pr 5.2 |
7 |
Apr 30 |
MAJOR TEST 1 Uncertainty and Time Series Properties JOURNAL: Application 3 |
8 |
Pr 6.2, 7.3 |
8 |
May 7 |
Modelling Firm Value |
9 |
Pr 8.1, 8.3
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9 |
May 14 |
Modelling Mergers and Acquisitions JOURNAL: Application 4 |
10 |
PRESENTATION 3 Pr 9.2, 9.3 |
10 |
May 21 |
MAJOR TEST 2 Debt Financing |
11 |
Pr 10.1, 10.2, 10.3 |
11 |
May 28 |
Simulating Security Prices JOURNAL: Application 5 |
13 |
PRESENTATION 4 Pr 11.1, 11.2 |
12 |
June 4 |
Security Returns and Portfolio Composition |
14 |
PRESENTATION 5 Pr 13.1, 13.2 |
13 |
June 11 |
MAJOR TEST 3 |
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PRESENTATION 6 Pr 14.1 |
Macquarie University policies and procedures are accessible from Policy Central. Students should be aware of the following policies in particular with regard to Learning and Teaching:
Academic Honesty Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/academic_honesty/policy.html
Assessment Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/assessment/policy.html
Grading Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/grading/policy.html
Grade Appeal Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/gradeappeal/policy.html
Grievance Management Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/grievance_management/policy.html
Disruption to Studies Policy http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/disruption_studies/policy.html The Disruption to Studies Policy is effective from March 3 2014 and replaces the Special Consideration Policy.
In addition, a number of other policies can be found in the Learning and Teaching Category of Policy Central.
Macquarie University students have a responsibility to be familiar with the Student Code of Conduct: https://students.mq.edu.au/support/student_conduct/
Supplementary Exams Further information regarding supplementary exams, including dates, is available here http://www.businessandeconomics.mq.edu.au/current_students/undergraduate/how_do_i/special_considerationMacquarie University provides a range of support services for students. For details, visit http://students.mq.edu.au/support/
Learning Skills (mq.edu.au/learningskills) provides academic writing resources and study strategies to improve your marks and take control of your study.
Students with a disability are encouraged to contact the Disability Service who can provide appropriate help with any issues that arise during their studies.
For all student enquiries, visit Student Connect at ask.mq.edu.au
For help with University computer systems and technology, visit http://informatics.mq.edu.au/help/.
When using the University's IT, you must adhere to the Acceptable Use Policy. The policy applies to all who connect to the MQ network including students.
Our postgraduates will be able to demonstrate a significantly enhanced depth and breadth of knowledge, scholarly understanding, and specific subject content knowledge in their chosen fields.
This graduate capability is supported by:
Our postgraduates will be capable of systematic enquiry; able to use research skills to create new knowledge that can be applied to real world issues, or contribute to a field of study or practice to enhance society. They will be capable of creative questioning, problem finding and problem solving.
This graduate capability is supported by:
Our postgraduates will be able to communicate effectively and convey their views to different social, cultural, and professional audiences. They will be able to use a variety of technologically supported media to communicate with empathy using a range of written, spoken or visual formats.
This graduate capability is supported by:
The Assignments and the Report both involve research. You will need to read some academic articles and synthesise those articles in developing your own arguments. There is also an opportunity to scan the media – newspapers, business journals, and other data sources, in doing your own research. In the databases section of the library website, both Business source premier and Factiva are very useful resource tools.