Unit convenor and teaching staff |
Unit convenor and teaching staff
Unit Convener
Nino Kordzakhia
Contact via nino.kordzakhia@mq.edu.au
AHH, Level 2
Lecturer
Georgy Sofronov
Contact via georgy.sofronov@mq.edu.au
AHH, Level 2
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Credit points |
Credit points
4
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Prerequisites |
Prerequisites
Admission to MAppStat or GradDipAppStat
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Corequisites |
Corequisites
STAT670
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Co-badged status |
Co-badged status
This unit is co-taught with STAT273.
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Unit description |
Unit description
This unit consolidates and expands upon the material on probability introduced in STAT670. The emphasis is on the understanding of probability concepts and their application. Examples are taken from areas as diverse as biology, medicine, finance, sport, and the social and physical sciences. Topics include: the foundations of probability; probability models and their properties; some commonly used statistical distributions; relationships and association between variables; distribution of functions of random variables and sample statistics; approximations including the central limit theorem; and an introduction to the behaviour of random processes. Simulation is used to demonstrate many of these concepts.
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Information about important academic dates including deadlines for withdrawing from units are available at https://www.mq.edu.au/study/calendar-of-dates
On successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:
Name | Weighting | Due |
---|---|---|
Weekly Tutorial assessment | 10% | Weekly |
Test 1 | 10% | Week 3 |
Assignment | 10% | Week 7 |
Test 2 | 10% | Week 11 |
Simulation Project | 10% | Week 13 |
Final Examination | 50% | University Examination Period |
Due: Weekly
Weighting: 10%
In weeks 3 to 12 students are required to submit the tutorial work via iLearn. Students will be given a week to complete the task. The cut-off date will be announced on iLearn. Tutorial works are equally weighted and worth 10% of the unit assessment.
Due: Week 3
Weighting: 10%
You are allowed to use one A4 page of handwritten notes, written on both sides. All necessary statistical tables and the formulae sheet will be provided.
An electronic calculator is essential. Text-returnable calculators are not permitted. The test will be administered via iLearn.
Due: Week 7
Weighting: 10%
Students will be given two weeks to complete the Assignment. The Assignment will be administered via iLearn.
No extensions will be granted. Students, who were unable to submit the Assignment on time, will be awarded 0 mark, except for cases in which an application for Disruption to Studies is made and approved.
Due: Week 11
Weighting: 10%
You are allowed to use one A4 page of handwritten notes, written on both sides. All necessary statistical tables and the formulae sheet will be provided. An electronic calculator is essential. Text-returnable calculators are not permitted.The test will be administered via iLearn.
Due: Week 13
Weighting: 10%
Open Book test. The Simulation Project will be administered via iLearn.
No extensions will be granted. Students, who were unable to submit the project on time, will be awarded 0 mark, except for cases in which an application for Disruption to Studies is made and approved.
Due: University Examination Period
Weighting: 50%
This will be of 3 hours duration plus 10 minutes reading time.
For the final examination you are permitted ONE A4 page of handwritten notes, written on both sides. All necessary statistical tables and the formulae sheet will be provided.
An electronic calculator is essential and will be required. Text-returnable calculators are not permitted.
Students enrolled externally will be notified of the location of external final examination centres by Examinations Manager of Macquarie University. You are expected to present yourself for examination at the time (AEDT) designated in the University Examination Timetable (or at an alternative time arranged for overseas students) at the centre you have agreed to sit the exam.
The timetable will be available in Draft form approximately eight weeks before the commencement of the examinations and in Final form approximately four weeks before the commencement of the examinations (http://www.exams.mq.edu.au).
The Macquarie University Final Examination policy details can be viewed at http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/examination/policy.htm
STAT683 is delivered by three hours of lectures and one hour of tutorial per week. Tutorials start in the second week of the Session.
The timetable for classes can be found at http://www.timetables.mq.edu.au
iLearn
All unit related materials, lecture notes, tutorials, additional exercises, the assessment and administrative updates, will be posted on the unit site on iLearn at
https://ilearn.mq.edu.au/login/MQ/ .
The lecture notes will be made available on iLearn before the lecture.
Audio recordings of lectures will be available on iLearn soon after the lecture is delivered.
Software
In this unit Microsoft Excel and R will be used.
The link to online answer engine Wolfram Alpha is available for verifying results of your calculations:
Recommended Texts and/or Materials
There is not the textbook set for this unit.
Recommended references available at Macquarie University library include:
(4th,5thor 6thEditions) QA276 .M426 2002
Kinney, J.J. (1997) Probability - An Introduction with Statistical Applications, John Wiley and Sons QA273.K493/1997
(*) Electronic copy is available from Macquarie University library.
Teaching and Learning Strategy
Lectures
Lectures begin in Week 1.
Tutorials
Tutorials begin in Week 2.
Every week, from Week 3 to Week 12, students must submit their tutorial work on iLearn. Tutorials are based on the material from the previous week’s lecture. The aim of tutorials is to solve problems applying analytical techniques learnt in lectures or using a statistical software.
WEEK |
LECTURE TOPIC |
W1 |
Experiments, sample spaces, Probability rules, Permutations and Combinations. |
W2 |
Conditional Probability. Independence, Bayes’ Theorem. |
W3 |
Random Variables. Probability Functions, Cumulative Distribution functions, Expected value, Variance and Moments. |
W4 |
Public Holiday |
W5 |
Special Discrete Distributions: Bernoulli, Binomial, Geometric and Poisson. Moment generating functions. |
W6 |
More Special Discrete Distributions: Negative Binomial and Hypergeometric. Introduction to Continuous random variables. |
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Mid-semester break |
W7 |
Special Continuous Distributions: Uniform, Exponential. Moment generating functions. |
W8 |
Normal Distribution. More Special Continuous Distributions: Gamma and Beta Distributions. Chebyshev’s Theorem. |
W9 |
Limit Theorems. Chi-squared Distribution, Distribution of a sample variance. F-Distribution. |
W10 |
t-Distribution, Distribution of a sample mean (the variance is unknown). A discrete bivariate distribution. |
W12 |
A continuous bivariate distribution. A bivariate Normal Distribution. The moment generating function. |
W13 |
Introduction to Markov Chains: states, transition probabilities, state vectors, stationary distribution, absorbing states. |
Macquarie University policies and procedures are accessible from Policy Central. Students should be aware of the following policies in particular with regard to Learning and Teaching:
Academic Honesty Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/academic_honesty/policy.html
New Assessment Policy in effect from Session 2 2016 http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/assessment/policy_2016.html. For more information visit http://students.mq.edu.au/events/2016/07/19/new_assessment_policy_in_place_from_session_2/
Assessment Policy prior to Session 2 2016 http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/assessment/policy.html
Grading Policy prior to Session 2 2016 http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/grading/policy.html
Grade Appeal Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/gradeappeal/policy.html
Complaint Management Procedure for Students and Members of the Public http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/complaint_management/procedure.html
Disruption to Studies Policy http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/disruption_studies/policy.html The Disruption to Studies Policy is effective from March 3 2014 and replaces the Special Consideration Policy.
In addition, a number of other policies can be found in the Learning and Teaching Category of Policy Central.
Macquarie University students have a responsibility to be familiar with the Student Code of Conduct: https://students.mq.edu.au/support/student_conduct/
Results shown in iLearn, or released directly by your Unit Convenor, are not confirmed as they are subject to final approval by the University. Once approved, final results will be sent to your student email address and will be made available in eStudent. For more information visit ask.mq.edu.au.
Macquarie University provides a range of support services for students. For details, visit http://students.mq.edu.au/support/
Learning Skills (mq.edu.au/learningskills) provides academic writing resources and study strategies to improve your marks and take control of your study.
Students with a disability are encouraged to contact the Disability Service who can provide appropriate help with any issues that arise during their studies.
For all student enquiries, visit Student Connect at ask.mq.edu.au
For help with University computer systems and technology, visit http://www.mq.edu.au/about_us/offices_and_units/information_technology/help/.
When using the University's IT, you must adhere to the Acceptable Use of IT Resources Policy. The policy applies to all who connect to the MQ network including students.
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Some lecture and tutorial materials will be updated with new exercises.