Unit Guide

General Information

Unit convenor and teaching staff	Unit convenor and teaching staff Unit Convenor Hume Winzar hume.winzar@mq.edu.au Contact via hume.winzar@mq.edu.au E4A 633 Wednesday 11:00 to 13:00 Tutor Nuraddeen Nuhu nuraddeen.nuhu@mq.edu.au Contact via nuraddeen.nuhu@mq.edu.au TBA Salut Muhidin salut.muhidin@mq.edu.au
Credit points	Credit points 3
Prerequisites	Prerequisites 39cp including (STAT150 or STAT170 or MKTG216)
Corequisites	Corequisites
Co-badged status	Co-badged status
Unit description	Unit description This unit explores business forecasting by considering the planning process of the organisation, the environment in which business forecasts are made, prediction of key variables using qualitative and quantitative information, and the practical considerations of forecast implementation. Quantitative predictions will generally make use of spreadsheets and simple statistical procedures that can be easily applied in the business environment.

Important Academic Dates

Information about important academic dates including deadlines for withdrawing from units are available at https://www.mq.edu.au/study/calendar-of-dates

Learning Outcomes

On successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of simple quantitative forecasting techniques used in business
To gain an understanding of qualitative forecasting techniques in a business environment
To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs

Assessment Tasks

Name	Weighting	Due
Quiz	10%	Week 8
The Reading Game contribution	20%	Weekly
Case Study/Report	30%	Week 13
Final Examination	40%	University Examination Period

Quiz

Due: Week 8
Weighting: 10%

A within-semester test held in tutorials in week 8. The test will cover all material from weeks 1-7 inclusive and will consist of 30 multiple-choice questions.

On successful completion you will be able to:

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of simple quantitative forecasting techniques used in business
To gain an understanding of qualitative forecasting techniques in a business environment

The Reading Game contribution

Due: Weekly
Weighting: 20%

This semester we will be using The Reading Game as a place for you to create, share and evaluate assessment questions with your classmates.

Twenty (20) marks are awarded for contribution to the Reading Game service by writing, answering, commenting on questions that are related with Business Forecasting.

On successful completion you will be able to:

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of simple quantitative forecasting techniques used in business
To gain an understanding of qualitative forecasting techniques in a business environment
To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs

Case Study/Report

Due: Week 13
Weighting: 30%

This report is written document reporting on the comprehensive business forecasting project. You will provide and analyse empirical data and form an argument based on academic and business literature.

This is a group assignment. Groups will be of three (3) or four (4) participants. You may not do this assignment individually. The number of people in the group will not be a consideration for the awarding of marks in the assignment.

No extensions will be granted.
There will be a deduction of 10% of the total available marks (3 marks) made from the total awarded mark for each 24 hour period, or part thereof, that the submission is late (for example, 25 hours late in submission – 20%, 6 marks, penalty). This penalty does not apply for cases in which an application for disruption of studies is made and approved. No submission will be accepted after solutions have been posted.

On successful completion you will be able to:

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of simple quantitative forecasting techniques used in business
To gain an understanding of qualitative forecasting techniques in a business environment
To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs

Final Examination

Due: University Examination Period
Weighting: 40%

Three-hour examination
10% Multiple Choice Questions, 30% Short Answer Questions
All material in the unit is examinable
Most complex formulae, and statistical tables, will be provided with the examination. Simpler formulae will not be provided
Students may bring into the examination
- a non-programmable calculator (not a smart-phone) and
- a single A4 page of notes on both sides in any format.

Further details about the final examination will be given later in the semester.

The Macquarie university examination policy details the principles and conduct of examinations at the University. The policy is available at: http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/examination/policy.htm

On successful completion you will be able to:

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of simple quantitative forecasting techniques used in business
To gain an understanding of qualitative forecasting techniques in a business environment
To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs

Delivery and Resources

Classes

Number and length of classes: 3 hours face-to-face teaching per week, consisting of 1 x 2 hour lecture and 1 x 1 hour tutorial. The timetable for classes can be found on the University web site at: http://www.timetables.mq.edu.au/

Prizes

Prizes for this unit (if applicable). http://www.businessandeconomics.mq.edu.au/undergraduate_degrees/prizes_scholarships

Recommended Texts and/or Materials

You do not need to buy these books. Occasionally, handouts thereof might be distributed in class.

Hanke, John E & Wichern, Dean W, (2013), Business Forecasting, (International Edition) Pearson, (9th Edition) ISBN: 9781292023007, ISBN 10: 1292023007

Also available as a Kindle book.

Additional readings

Hyndman, Rob J and Athanasopoulos, George (2014), Forecasting: principles and practice, OTexts Online: https://www.otexts.org/fpp/

Technology Used and Required

Students will learn to use spreadsheet (MS-Excel) and MINITAB.

Unit Web Page

The web page for this unit can be found at: iLearn http://ilearn.mq.edu.au

Teaching and Learning Strategy

This unit is lecture- and tutorial-based. Typically, the class-time structure will be like this:

Lectures: Business Forecasting theory and concepts will be discussed. We will establish links between theory and your personal knowledge in a business strategic planning setting during class discussions.
Tutorials: students are required to work on some tasks of business forecasting solutions using several models and techniques. Student participation and meaningful contribution are essential to understand business forecasting concepts and calculations.

Lecture notes will be posted before each lecture on iLearn

Unit Schedule

Week	Topics Covered	Chapter(s)	Other Information
1	· Introduction Forecasting in management · The philosophy of forecasting	Hanke & Wichern Ch. 1 and 11 Hyndman & Athanasopoulos Ch. 1 and 2
2	· Exploring Data Patterns and Introduction to Forecasting Techniques	Hanke & Wichern Ch. 3	Tutorial – Introduction to the Data Environment
3	· Judgmental Forecasting	Hyndman & Athanasopoulos Ch. 3	Tutorial – Exploring data pattern
4	· Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods: Simple Exponential Smoothing	Hanke & Wichern Ch. 4	Tutorial – Elementary smoothing
5	· Exponential Smoothing Methods: Holt's and Winter's Method	Hanke & Wichern Ch. 5 Hyndman & Athanasopoulos Ch. 7	Tutorial – Trend Models
6	· Time Series and Their Components	Hanke & Wichern Ch. 6 Hyndman & Athanasopoulos Ch. 6	Tutoriall – Seasonality
7	· Simple Linear Regression	Hanke & Wichern Ch. 7 Hyndman & Athanasopoulos Ch. 4	Tutorial – Regression I
8	· Multiple Regression Models Dummy Variables	Hanke & Wichern Ch. 7 Hyndman & Athanasopoulos Ch. 5	Quiz in Tutorials (covers weeks 1-7 inclusive)
9	· Regression with Time Series Data	Hanke & Wichern Ch. 8	Tutorial – Regression II
10	· The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Methodology: Non-seasonal ARIMA · The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Methodology: Seasonal ARIMA	Hanke & Wichern Ch. 9 Hyndman & Athanasopoulos Ch. 8	Tutorial – Leading Indicators
11	· Leading Indicators and Business Cycles		Project assignment review
12	· Judgment and Forecast Adjustments (1)	Hanke & Wichern Ch. 10 Hyndman & Athanasopoulos Ch. 3	Project assignment review
13	· Judgment and Forecast Adjustments (2) · Course Review for Final Exam	Hanke & Wichern Ch. 10	Group assignment Due

Policies and Procedures

Macquarie University policies and procedures are accessible from Policy Central. Students should be aware of the following policies in particular with regard to Learning and Teaching:

Academic Honesty Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/academic_honesty/policy.html

New Assessment Policy in effect from Session 2 2016 http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/assessment/policy_2016.html. For more information visit http://students.mq.edu.au/events/2016/07/19/new_assessment_policy_in_place_from_session_2/

Assessment Policy prior to Session 2 2016 http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/assessment/policy.html

Grading Policy prior to Session 2 2016 http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/grading/policy.html

Grade Appeal Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/gradeappeal/policy.html

Complaint Management Procedure for Students and Members of the Public http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/complaint_management/procedure.html

Disruption to Studies Policy http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/disruption_studies/policy.html The Disruption to Studies Policy is effective from March 3 2014 and replaces the Special Consideration Policy.

In addition, a number of other policies can be found in the Learning and Teaching Category of Policy Central.

Student Code of Conduct

Macquarie University students have a responsibility to be familiar with the Student Code of Conduct: https://students.mq.edu.au/support/student_conduct/

Results

Results shown in iLearn, or released directly by your Unit Convenor, are not confirmed as they are subject to final approval by the University. Once approved, final results will be sent to your student email address and will be made available in eStudent. For more information visit ask.mq.edu.au.

Student Support

Macquarie University provides a range of support services for students. For details, visit http://students.mq.edu.au/support/

Learning Skills

Learning Skills (mq.edu.au/learningskills) provides academic writing resources and study strategies to improve your marks and take control of your study.

Student Services and Support

Students with a disability are encouraged to contact the Disability Service who can provide appropriate help with any issues that arise during their studies.

Student Enquiries

For all student enquiries, visit Student Connect at ask.mq.edu.au

IT Help

For help with University computer systems and technology, visit http://www.mq.edu.au/about_us/offices_and_units/information_technology/help/.

When using the University's IT, you must adhere to the Acceptable Use of IT Resources Policy. The policy applies to all who connect to the MQ network including students.

Graduate Capabilities

Creative and Innovative

Our graduates will also be capable of creative thinking and of creating knowledge. They will be imaginative and open to experience and capable of innovation at work and in the community. We want them to be engaged in applying their critical, creative thinking.

This graduate capability is supported by:

Learning outcomes

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of simple quantitative forecasting techniques used in business
To gain an understanding of qualitative forecasting techniques in a business environment
To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs

Assessment tasks

The Reading Game contribution
Case Study/Report

Discipline Specific Knowledge and Skills

Our graduates will take with them the intellectual development, depth and breadth of knowledge, scholarly understanding, and specific subject content in their chosen fields to make them competent and confident in their subject or profession. They will be able to demonstrate, where relevant, professional technical competence and meet professional standards. They will be able to articulate the structure of knowledge of their discipline, be able to adapt discipline-specific knowledge to novel situations, and be able to contribute from their discipline to inter-disciplinary solutions to problems.

This graduate capability is supported by:

Learning outcomes

To gain an understanding of simple quantitative forecasting techniques used in business
To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs

Assessment tasks

Quiz
The Reading Game contribution
Case Study/Report
Final Examination

Critical, Analytical and Integrative Thinking

We want our graduates to be capable of reasoning, questioning and analysing, and to integrate and synthesise learning and knowledge from a range of sources and environments; to be able to critique constraints, assumptions and limitations; to be able to think independently and systemically in relation to scholarly activity, in the workplace, and in the world. We want them to have a level of scientific and information technology literacy.

This graduate capability is supported by:

Learning outcomes

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of qualitative forecasting techniques in a business environment

Assessment tasks

Quiz
The Reading Game contribution
Case Study/Report
Final Examination

Problem Solving and Research Capability

Our graduates should be capable of researching; of analysing, and interpreting and assessing data and information in various forms; of drawing connections across fields of knowledge; and they should be able to relate their knowledge to complex situations at work or in the world, in order to diagnose and solve problems. We want them to have the confidence to take the initiative in doing so, within an awareness of their own limitations.

This graduate capability is supported by:

Learning outcomes

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of simple quantitative forecasting techniques used in business
To gain an understanding of qualitative forecasting techniques in a business environment
To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs

Assessment tasks

Quiz
The Reading Game contribution
Case Study/Report
Final Examination

Changes from Previous Offering

Judgement-based forecasting has been given some extended treatment over previous offerings, and we present some additional methods of customer-based and sales-based forecasting techniques.

As a result, there is a slight reduction to the previous focus on time-series extrapolation.

Global Contexts & Sustainability

This unit teaches Business Forecasting principles that can be applied in a global context.

Sustainability issues are embedded in our discussions of equity, privacy and ethics throughout the progress of this unit.

Research and Practice

This unit includes research by the unit convenor and other Macquarie University researchers
This unit uses research from external sources. This unit gives you opportunities to learn how to critique current research at the frontiers of your discipline as a prelude to later conducting your own research.

Journal of Forecasting
Foresight: the international journal of applied forecasting
International Journal of Forecasting
Journal of International Business Studies
Journal of Marketing Research