Unit convenor and teaching staff 
Unit convenor and teaching staff
Unit Convener and Lecturer
Ken Beath
Contact via ken.beath@mq.edu.au
12 Wally's Walk (E7A) Office 6.34
Thurs 24
Lecturer
Nino Kordzakhia
Contact via nino.kordzakhia@mq.edu.au
12 Wally's Walk (E7A) Office 6.10
TBA


Credit points 
Credit points
4

Prerequisites 
Prerequisites
Admission to MAppStat or GradDipAppStat or MSc

Corequisites 
Corequisites
STAT670

Cobadged status 
Cobadged status
This unit is cotaught with STAT273.

Unit description 
Unit description
This unit consolidates and expands upon the material on probability introduced in STAT670. The emphasis is on the understanding of probability concepts and their application. Examples are taken from areas as diverse as biology, medicine, finance, sport, and the social and physical sciences. Topics include: the foundations of probability; probability models and their properties; some commonly used statistical distributions; relationships and association between variables; distribution of functions of random variables and sample statistics; approximations including the central limit theorem; and an introduction to the behaviour of random processes. Simulation is used to demonstrate many of these concepts.

Information about important academic dates including deadlines for withdrawing from units are available at http://students.mq.edu.au/student_admin/enrolmentguide/academicdates/
Ontime submission of the assessment tasks is compulsory. Late submission will not be accepted unless satisfactory documentation outlining illness or misadventure is submitted via ask.mq.edu.au. Information about the Disruption to Studies policy and procedure is available at:
http://students.mq.edu.au/student_admin/exams/disruption_to_studies/
http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/disruption_studies/policy.html
http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/disruption_studies/procedure.html
Name  Weighting  Hurdle  Due 

Test 1  10%  No  Week 4 lecture 
Assignment 1  10%  No  Week 7 
Test 2  10%  No  Week 10 lecture 
Simulation project  10%  No  Week 12 
Final Examination  60%  No  University Examination Period 
Due: Week 4 lecture
Weighting: 10%
You are allowed to bring in one A4 page of handwritten notes, written on both sides. All necessary statistical tables and formulae will be provided. An electronic calculator is essential. Nonprogrammable calculators with no textretrieval capacity are allowed in the tests or exam.
Due: Week 7
Weighting: 10%
Students will be given one week to complete the Assignment.
Due: Week 10 lecture
Weighting: 10%
You are allowed to bring in one A4 page of handwritten notes, written on both sides. All necessary statistical tables and formulae will be provided. An electronic calculator is essential. Nonprogrammable calculators with no textretrieval capacity are allowed in the tests or exam.
Due: Week 12
Weighting: 10%
Students will be given one week to complete the Simulation project.
Due: University Examination Period
Weighting: 60%
The examination will be of 3 hours duration with 10 minutes reading time.
For the Final examination you are allowed to bring in one A4 page of handwritten notes, written on both sides. All necessary statistical tables and formulae will be provided.
An electronic calculator is essential and will be required. Nonprogrammable calculators with no textretrieval capacity are allowed in the tests or exam.
You are expected to present yourself for examination at the time and place designated in the University Examination Timetable. The timetable will be available in Draft form approximately eight weeks before the commencement of the examinations and in Final form approximately four weeks before the commencement of the examinations (http://www.exams.mq.edu.au)
If you apply for Disruption to Study for your final examination, you must make yourself available for the week of December 1115, 2017. If you are not available at that time, there is no guarantee an additional examination time will be offered. Specific examination dates and times will be determined at a later date.
STAT683 is delivered by lectures and tutorials.
The timetable for classes can be found on the University web site at:
http://www.timetables.mq.edu.au
There is no set textbook for this subject. Lecture notes will be available from iLearn at least the night before the lecture. Students should read the lecture notes before the lecture. All teaching materials will be available via iLearn.
References that may be useful
Technology Used and Required
iLearn
There will be an iLearn site for this unit where weekly information, online discussions, lecture notes, iLectures, practice exercises and solutions will be posted.
Students are required to login to iLearn using their Student ID Number and myMQ Portal Password (note, information about how to get hold of your password is provided by the weblink http://ilearn.mq.edu.au).
The website for the iLearn login is https://ilearn.mq.edu.au/login/MQ/. You can only access the material if you are enrolled in the unit.
Software
We will be using Microsoft Office for Windows (especially Excel), R and Wolfram Alpha, freely available online.
Audio/Video recordings of lectures will be available on iLearn soon after the lecture is delivered.
Course notes are available on iLearn before the lecture. Students should familiarise themselves with the notes before the lecture and bring a copy (in paper or electronic form) to class.
Lectures
Lectures begin in Week 1. STAT683 students should attend 3 hours per week. The lecture notes must be brought to the lectures each week. These will be available on iLearn the night before the lecture.
Tutorials
Tutorials begin in Week 2 and are based on work from the previous week’s lecture. The aim of tutorials is to apply techniques learnt in lectures to solve problems using a statistical package. The material is available on iLearn.
Additional Exercises
Additional exercises may also be made available on iLearn. It is expected that students will attempt all questions. The exercises will not be discussed during the tutorial, although some may be discussed during the lectures. A solution will be made available on the website.
WEEK 
LECTURE TOPIC 
W1 
Experiments, sample spaces, Probability Rules, Permutations and Combinations 
W2 
Conditional Probability. Independence, Bayes’ Theorem 
W3 
Random Variables. Probability Functions, Discrete Probability Distributions, Cumulative Distribution functions, Expected value and Variance. Moments. 
W4 
Important Discrete Distributions: Bernoulli, Binomial, Geometric and Poisson. 
W5 
Moment generating functions. More Discrete Distributions: Negative Binomial and Hypergeometric. 
W6 
Introduction to Continuous random variables. Cumulative distribution function. 
W7 
Continuous Distributions: Uniform, Exponential. 

Midsemester break 
W8 
Normal distribution. 
W9 
Continuous Distributions: Gamma and Beta Distributions. Chebyshev’s Theorem. 
W10 
Sampling Distributions. 
W11 
Joint Distributions: Discrete and Continuous cases. 
W12 
Introduction to Markov Chains. States, Transition probabilities, State vectors, Equilibrium, Absorbing States 
W13 
Revision. 

Macquarie University policies and procedures are accessible from Policy Central. Students should be aware of the following policies in particular with regard to Learning and Teaching:
Academic Honesty Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/academic_honesty/policy.html
Assessment Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/assessment/policy_2016.html
Grade Appeal Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/gradeappeal/policy.html
Complaint Management Procedure for Students and Members of the Public http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/complaint_management/procedure.html
Disruption to Studies Policy (in effect until Dec 4th, 2017): http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/disruption_studies/policy.html
Special Consideration Policy (in effect from Dec 4th, 2017): https://staff.mq.edu.au/work/strategyplanningandgovernance/universitypoliciesandprocedures/policies/specialconsideration
In addition, a number of other policies can be found in the Learning and Teaching Category of Policy Central.
Macquarie University students have a responsibility to be familiar with the Student Code of Conduct: https://students.mq.edu.au/support/student_conduct/
Results shown in iLearn, or released directly by your Unit Convenor, are not confirmed as they are subject to final approval by the University. Once approved, final results will be sent to your student email address and will be made available in eStudent. For more information visit ask.mq.edu.au.
Macquarie University provides a range of support services for students. For details, visit http://students.mq.edu.au/support/
Learning Skills (mq.edu.au/learningskills) provides academic writing resources and study strategies to improve your marks and take control of your study.
For all student enquiries, visit Student Connect at ask.mq.edu.au
Students with a disability are encouraged to contact the Disability Service who can provide appropriate help with any issues that arise during their studies.
For help with University computer systems and technology, visit http://www.mq.edu.au/about_us/offices_and_units/information_technology/help/.
When using the University's IT, you must adhere to the Acceptable Use of IT Resources Policy. The policy applies to all who connect to the MQ network including students.
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