Unit Guide

General Information

Unit convenor and teaching staff	Unit convenor and teaching staff Unit Convenor Con Korkofingas con.korkofingas@mq.edu.au Contact via con.Korkofingas@mq.edu.au 4ER (E4A) 629 Monday 1:00 to 2:00 pm, Thursday 2.00 to 3.00pm Tutor Joe Pitt joe.pitt@mq.edu.au Tutor Muhammad Abid muhammad.abid@mq.edu.au Tutor Brenton Price brenton.price@mq.edu.au
Credit points	Credit points 3
Prerequisites	Prerequisites ((39cp at 100 level or above) or (6cp in BBA or BUS units at 200 level)) and (STAT150 or STAT170 or MKTG216)
Corequisites	Corequisites
Co-badged status	Co-badged status
Unit description	Unit description This unit explores business forecasting by considering the planning process of the organisation, the environment in which business forecasts are made, prediction of key variables using qualitative and quantitative information, and the practical considerations of forecast implementation. Quantitative predictions will generally make use of spreadsheets and simple statistical procedures that can be easily applied in the business environment.

Important Academic Dates

Information about important academic dates including deadlines for withdrawing from units are available at https://www.mq.edu.au/study/calendar-of-dates

Learning Outcomes

On successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of both simple quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques used in business
To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs
To understand the critical role of group synergies, dynamics and processes in determining the quality of group project output and overall learning outcomes

Assessment Tasks

Name	Weighting	Hurdle	Due
Quizzes	20%	No	Weeks 7, 10
Case Study/Report	30%	No	Part 1: 22/4, Part 2: 3/6
Final Examination	50%	No	University Examination Period

Quizzes

Due: Weeks 7, 10
Weighting: 20%

There will be two within-semester quizzes held in tutorials in weeks 7 and 10. The first test will cover all material from weeks 1 - 4 inclusive while the second quiz will cover all material from weeks 5 to 8 inclusive. Both within-semester quizzes will consist of 30 multiple-choice questions. Each quiz will be worth 10% of the total mark in this unit.

Students need to sit the test in the tutorial in which they are officially enrolled. Failure to sit the test in the officially enrolled tutorial (unless permission has been obtained prior to the test week from the unit co-ordinator) will lead to zero marks for the quiz.

On successful completion you will be able to:

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of both simple quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques used in business

Case Study/Report

Due: Part 1: 22/4, Part 2: 3/6
Weighting: 30%

This assessment will be a written report based around a comprehensive business forecasting project. You will need to determine and find suitable empirical data which will be then be used as the basis of relevant business forecasts and associated recommendations.

This is, in general, a group assignment although there will be a separate individual component within the group assessment framework. The separate individual component will be worth 50% of the total Case Study Report marks ie the Case Study/Report total assessment (30%) will be divided into an individual component (15%) and a group work component (15%). Groups will be of either three (3) or four (4) participants with members in each group required to be enrolled in the same tutorial. You may not do this case study report individually. The number of people in the group will not be a consideration for the awarding of marks in the case study report. Groups will be formed in the tutorials in Week 2 of the semester.

The Case Study report submissions will be divided into two distinct components; Each component will be worth 15% of the total Case Study report mark.

Part 1 consists of some preliminary data identification,analysis and provision of basic forecasts and will be done individually by each member of the group. Each student is required to submit their response to Part 1 through Turnitin on the unit website by 11 pm, Sunday 22nd April.

Part 2 will involve the development of further forecasts for relevant business variables based on the empirical data and analysis in Part 1. This is to be done as a group and the analysis required may involve development of scenarios,strategies and provision of suitable recommendations. Each group is required to submit their response (one response only per group) to Part 2 through Turnitin on the unit website by 11 pm, Sunday 3rd June.

For both Parts 1 and 2:

No extensions will be granted.
There will be a deduction of 10% of the total available marks made from the total awarded mark for each 24 hour period, or part thereof, that the submission is late (for example, 25 hours late in submission – 20%, 6 marks, penalty). This penalty does not apply for cases in which an application for special consideration is made and approved. No submission will be accepted after solutions have been posted.
More details on the exact nature of the tasks required will be distributed in the early weeks of the semester.

On successful completion you will be able to:

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of both simple quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques used in business
To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs
To understand the critical role of group synergies, dynamics and processes in determining the quality of group project output and overall learning outcomes

Final Examination

Due: University Examination Period
Weighting: 50%

The final examination will be a three-hour examination
The exam will consist of Multiple Choice (10%) and Short Answer Questions (40%)
All material in the unit is examinable
Complex formulae, and statistical tables (if required), will be provided with the examination. Simpler formulae will not be provided
Students may bring into the examination
- a non-programmable calculator (not a smart-phone) and
- a single A4 page of notes on both sides in any format.

Further details about the final examination will be given later in the semester.

The Macquarie university examination policy details the principles and conduct of examinations at the University. The policy is available at: http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/examination/policy.htm

On successful completion you will be able to:

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of both simple quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques used in business
To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs

Delivery and Resources

Classes

Number and length of classes: 3 hours face-to-face teaching per week, consisting of 1 x 2 hour lecture and 1 x 1 hour tutorial. The timetable for classes can be found on the University web site at: http://www.timetables.mq.edu.au/

Note: In Week 6, Monday tutorial classes will not run as the relevant date falls on Easter Monday. Students in these classes should attend any of the scheduled tutorials on Wednesday 4th April.

Prizes

Prizes for this unit (if applicable). http://www.businessandeconomics.mq.edu.au/undergraduate_degrees/prizes_scholarships

Recommended Texts and/or Materials

You do not need to buy these books. Occasionally, handouts thereof might be distributed in class.

Hanke, John E & Wichern, Dean W, (2013), Business Forecasting, (International Edition) Pearson, (9th Edition) ISBN: 9781292023007, ISBN 10: 1292023007

Also available as a Kindle book.

Additional readings

Hyndman, Rob J and Athanasopoulos, George (2014), Forecasting: principles and practice, OTexts Online: https://www.otexts.org/fpp/

Technology Used and Required

Students will learn to use spreadsheets (MS-Excel) and MINITAB.

Unit Web Page

The web page for this unit can be found at: iLearn http://ilearn.mq.edu.au

Teaching and Learning Strategy

This unit is lecture- and tutorial-based. Typically, the class-time structure will be like this:

Lectures: Business Forecasting theory and concepts will be discussed. We will establish links between theory and your personal knowledge in a business strategic planning setting during class discussions.
Tutorials: students are required to work on some tasks of business forecasting solutions using several models and techniques. Student participation and meaningful contribution are essential to understand business forecasting concepts and calculations.

Lecture notes will be posted before each lecture on iLearn

Passing the Unit

Students must obtain a mark of 50 % to pass the unit. There are no other hurdle requirements for BBA315 in S1, 2018

Unit Schedule

Week/Lecture Date	Lecture Topics Covered	Chapter(s)	Other Information
1 (1^st Mar)	Introduction to Forecasting in Management Explaining the unit outline. The meaning and philosophy of forecasting. Organisations, planning and budgeting.	Hanke & Wichern (H & W) Ch. 1 Hyndman & Athanasopoulos (H & A) Ch. 1
2 (8^th Mar)	The Forecasting Environment Evaluation of forecasting tasks. Definition of time series. Sources of data for prediction. Analysing components of Time Series. Stationarity	H &W Ch. 2, 3, 5 H & A Ch. 2	Tutorial 1 – Introduction to Forecasting Group Formation
3 (15^th Mar)	Introduction to Quantitative Forecasting Techniques Errors of prediction, Costs of errors Simple predictor models • Naïve, MA, SES	H &W Ch. 4, 5 H & A Ch. 2, 7	Tutorial 2 – Introduction to the Data Environment
4 (22^nd Mar)	Incorporating Steps and Trends • ARSSES model • Prediction of trends Holts smoothing model Trend extrapolation	H &W Ch. 4, 5 H & A Ch. 7	Tutorial 3 – Elementary smoothing
5 (29^th Mar)	Exploring Seasonality Seasonal models De-seasonalising data Decomposition Winters Smoothing Model	H &W Ch. 4, 5 H & A Ch. 6, 7	Tutorial 4 – Trend smoothing and extrapolation
6 (5^th Apr)	Regression Models (I) Introduction to Regression models. Ways to Evaluate Models Diagnosing Regression Models	H &W Ch. 6, 7 H & A Ch. 4, 5	Tutorial 5 – Seasonal Models (Students in Monday tutorials please attend any scheduled tutorial class on Wednesday 4^th April)
7 (12^th Apr)	Regression Models (II) Dummy Variables Trends in Regression Autoregressions, VAR	H &W Ch. 7, 8 H & A Ch. 4, 5, 9	Quiz 1 in Tutorials (covers weeks 1-4 inclusive, 30 MC questions)
	SEMESTER BREAK		Group Project (Part 1) due Sunday, 22^nd April, 11pm Sydney time)
8 (3^rd May)	Business Indicators Leading Indicators Cycles Anticipatory Surveys		Tutorial 6 – Regression (1)
9 (10^th May)	Judgmental Forecasting (I) • Judgmental methods Subjective probability assessments. The role of judgmental prediction in the organisation	H &W Ch. 10 H & A Ch. 3	Tutorial 7 – Regression (2), Leading Indicators
10 (17^th May)	Judgmental Forecasting (II) Scenario development methods DELPHI approaches Analogy methods	H &W Ch. 10 H & A Ch. 3	Quiz 2 in Tutorials (covers weeks 5-8 inclusive, 30 MC questions)
11 (24^th May)	Judgmental Forecasting (III) Other types of Judgmental Forecast Methods Judgmental Forecast Examples Combining Forecasts	H &W Ch. 10 H & A Ch. 3	Tutorial 8 – Group Project (Part 2) Direction and Assistance
12 (31^st May)	Judgmental Forecasting (IV) Using all the information to forecast. Putting it all together. Forecasting in practice. The future of forecasting	H &W Ch. 10, 11 H & A Ch. 3	Tutorial 9 – Judgmental Forecast Methods Group Project (Part 2) due Sunday, 3^rd June, 11pm Sydney time)
13 (7^th Jun)	Revision, Exam Preparation		No tutorial this week

Policies and Procedures

Macquarie University policies and procedures are accessible from Policy Central (https://staff.mq.edu.au/work/strategy-planning-and-governance/university-policies-and-procedures/policy-central). Students should be aware of the following policies in particular with regard to Learning and Teaching:

Academic Appeals Policy
Academic Integrity Policy
Academic Progression Policy
Assessment Policy
Fitness to Practice Procedure
Grade Appeal Policy
Complaint Management Procedure for Students and Members of the Public
Special Consideration Policy (Note: The Special Consideration Policy is effective from 4 December 2017 and replaces the Disruption to Studies Policy.)

Undergraduate students seeking more policy resources can visit the Student Policy Gateway (https://students.mq.edu.au/support/study/student-policy-gateway). It is your one-stop-shop for the key policies you need to know about throughout your undergraduate student journey.

If you would like to see all the policies relevant to Learning and Teaching visit Policy Central (https://staff.mq.edu.au/work/strategy-planning-and-governance/university-policies-and-procedures/policy-central).

Student Code of Conduct

Macquarie University students have a responsibility to be familiar with the Student Code of Conduct: https://students.mq.edu.au/study/getting-started/student-conduct

Results

Results shown in iLearn, or released directly by your Unit Convenor, are not confirmed as they are subject to final approval by the University. Once approved, final results will be sent to your student email address and will be made available in eStudent. For more information visit ask.mq.edu.au.

Student Support

Macquarie University provides a range of support services for students. For details, visit http://students.mq.edu.au/support/

Learning Skills

Learning Skills (mq.edu.au/learningskills) provides academic writing resources and study strategies to improve your marks and take control of your study.

Student Services and Support

Students with a disability are encouraged to contact the Disability Service who can provide appropriate help with any issues that arise during their studies.

Student Enquiries

For all student enquiries, visit Student Connect at ask.mq.edu.au

IT Help

For help with University computer systems and technology, visit http://www.mq.edu.au/about_us/offices_and_units/information_technology/help/.

When using the University's IT, you must adhere to the Acceptable Use of IT Resources Policy. The policy applies to all who connect to the MQ network including students.

Graduate Capabilities

Discipline Specific Knowledge and Skills

Our graduates will take with them the intellectual development, depth and breadth of knowledge, scholarly understanding, and specific subject content in their chosen fields to make them competent and confident in their subject or profession. They will be able to demonstrate, where relevant, professional technical competence and meet professional standards. They will be able to articulate the structure of knowledge of their discipline, be able to adapt discipline-specific knowledge to novel situations, and be able to contribute from their discipline to inter-disciplinary solutions to problems.

This graduate capability is supported by:

Learning outcomes

To gain an understanding of both simple quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques used in business
To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs

Assessment tasks

Quizzes
Case Study/Report
Final Examination

Critical, Analytical and Integrative Thinking

We want our graduates to be capable of reasoning, questioning and analysing, and to integrate and synthesise learning and knowledge from a range of sources and environments; to be able to critique constraints, assumptions and limitations; to be able to think independently and systemically in relation to scholarly activity, in the workplace, and in the world. We want them to have a level of scientific and information technology literacy.

This graduate capability is supported by:

Learning outcomes

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To understand the critical role of group synergies, dynamics and processes in determining the quality of group project output and overall learning outcomes

Assessment tasks

Quizzes
Case Study/Report
Final Examination

Problem Solving and Research Capability

Our graduates should be capable of researching; of analysing, and interpreting and assessing data and information in various forms; of drawing connections across fields of knowledge; and they should be able to relate their knowledge to complex situations at work or in the world, in order to diagnose and solve problems. We want them to have the confidence to take the initiative in doing so, within an awareness of their own limitations.

This graduate capability is supported by:

Learning outcomes

To gain an understanding of the need for, and uses of, forecasting in a business context
To gain an understanding of both simple quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques used in business
To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs
To understand the critical role of group synergies, dynamics and processes in determining the quality of group project output and overall learning outcomes

Assessment tasks

Quizzes
Case Study/Report
Final Examination

Effective Communication

We want to develop in our students the ability to communicate and convey their views in forms effective with different audiences. We want our graduates to take with them the capability to read, listen, question, gather and evaluate information resources in a variety of formats, assess, write clearly, speak effectively, and to use visual communication and communication technologies as appropriate.

This graduate capability is supported by:

Learning outcomes

To learn the application of a number of forecasting techniques using Spreadsheets and other statistical programs
To understand the critical role of group synergies, dynamics and processes in determining the quality of group project output and overall learning outcomes

Assessment tasks

Case Study/Report
Final Examination

Changes from Previous Offering

There are no changes to the recommended texts or assessment components in S1, 18

Global Contexts & Sustainability

This unit teaches Business Forecasting principles that can be applied in a global context.

Sustainability issues are embedded in our discussions of equity, privacy and ethics throughout the progress of this unit.

Research and Practice

This unit includes research by the unit convenor and other Macquarie University researchers
This unit uses research from external sources. This unit gives you opportunities to learn how to critique current research at the frontiers of your discipline as a prelude to later conducting your own research.

Journal of Forecasting
Foresight: The International journal of applied forecasting
International Journal of Forecasting
Journal of International Business Studies
Journal of Marketing Research

Changes since First Published

Date	Description
19/02/2018	Quiz 1 has been moved from week 6 to week 7. This is because of tutorials scheduled on Easter Monday. The tutorial which was previously in Week 7 has been moved to Week 6. Students who have their tutorial class on Easter Monday can attend any scheduled tutorial on Wednesday of week 6.