Students

STAT6183 – Introduction to Probability

2020 – Session 1, Weekday attendance, North Ryde

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update

Due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, any references to assessment tasks and on-campus delivery may no longer be up-to-date on this page.

Students should consult iLearn for revised unit information.

Find out more about the Coronavirus (COVID-19) and potential impacts on staff and students

General Information

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Unit convenor and teaching staff Unit convenor and teaching staff Unit Convenor/Lecturer
Karol Binkowski
Contact via Email
12WW 614
please refer to iLearn
Frank Schoenig
Credit points Credit points
10
Prerequisites Prerequisites
Admission to MAppStat or GradCertAppStat or GradDipAppStat or MSc or MDataSc
Corequisites Corequisites
STAT6170 or STAT670
Co-badged status Co-badged status
Unit description Unit description
This unit consolidates and expands upon the material on probability introduced in STAT670. The emphasis is on the understanding of probability concepts and their application. Examples are taken from areas as diverse as biology, medicine, finance, sport, and the social and physical sciences. Topics include: the foundations of probability; probability models and their properties; some commonly used statistical distributions; relationships and association between variables; distribution of functions of random variables and sample statistics; approximations including the central limit theorem; and an introduction to the behaviour of random processes. Simulation is used to demonstrate many of these concepts.

Important Academic Dates

Information about important academic dates including deadlines for withdrawing from units are available at https://www.mq.edu.au/study/calendar-of-dates

Learning Outcomes

On successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:

  • ULO1: Analyse probability and conditional probability of an event by applying a probabilistic model for an experiment.
  • ULO2: Apply a range of strategies to find and interpret the moments of discrete and continuous random variables including their expected values and variances.
  • ULO3: Analyse a bivariate probability distribution to find and interpret corresponding covariances, correlations, marginal and conditional probability distributions.
  • ULO4: Apply the Law of Large Numbers (LLN) and the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to find asymptotic distribution of a sample mean
  • ULO5: Apply Markov Chain (MC) theory to practical problems and tasks.

Assessment Tasks

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update

Assessment details are no longer provided here as a result of changes due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Students should consult iLearn for revised unit information.

Find out more about the Coronavirus (COVID-19) and potential impacts on staff and students

General Assessment Information

ASSIGNMENT SUBMISSION: Assignment submission will be online through the iLearn page.

Submit assignments online via the appropriate assignment link on the iLearn page. A personalised cover sheet is not required with online submissions. Read the submission statement carefully before accepting it as there are substantial penalties for making a false declaration.

  • Assignment submission is via iLearn. You should upload this as a single scanned PDF file.
  • Please note the quick guide on how to upload your assignments provided on the iLearn page.
  • Please make sure that each page in your uploaded assignment corresponds to only one A4 page (do not upload an A3 page worth of content as an A4 page in landscape). If you are using an app like Clear Scanner, please make sure that the photos you are using are clear and shadow-free.
  • It is your responsibility to make sure your assignment submission is legible.
  • If there are technical obstructions to your submitting online, please email us to let us know.

You may submit as often as required prior to the due date/time. Please note that each submission will completely replace any previous submissions. It is in your interests to make frequent submissions of your partially completed work as insurance against technical or other problems near the submission deadline.

LATE SUBMISSION OF WORK:  All assessment tasks must be submitted by the official due date and time. In the case of a late submission for a non-timed assessment (e.g. an assignment), if special consideration has NOT been granted, 20% of the earned mark will be deducted for each 24-hour period (or part thereof) that the submission is late for the first 2 days (including weekends and/or public holidays). For example, if an assignment is submitted 25 hours late, its mark will attract a penalty equal to 40% of the earned mark. After 2 days (including weekends and public holidays) a mark of 0% will be awarded. Timed assessment tasks (e.g. tests, examinations) do not fall under these rules.

FINAL EXAM POLICY: It is Macquarie University policy not to set early examinations for individuals or groups of students. All students are expected to ensure that they are available until the end of the teaching semester, that is, the final day of the official examination period. The only excuse for not sitting an examination at the designated time is because of documented illness or unavoidable disruption. In these special circumstances, you may apply for special consideration via ask.mq.edu.au.

If you receive special consideration for the final exam, a supplementary exam will be scheduled in the interval between the regular exam period and the start of the next session. By making a special consideration application for the final exam you are declaring yourself available for a resit during this supplementary examination period and will not be eligible for a second special consideration approval based on pre-existing commitments. Please ensure you are familiar with the policy prior to submitting an application.

You can check the supplementary exam information page on FSE101 in iLearn (bit.ly/FSESupp) for dates, and approved applicants will receive an individual notification one week prior to the exam with the exact date and time of their supplementary examination.

Delivery and Resources

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update

Any references to on-campus delivery below may no longer be relevant due to COVID-19.

Please check here for updated delivery information: https://ask.mq.edu.au/account/pub/display/unit_status

Classes 

STAT6183 is delivered by lectures and SGTA classes.

The timetable for classes can be found on the University web site at:

https://timetables.mq.edu.au

Required and Recommended Texts and/or Materials 

There is no set textbook for this subject. Lecture notes will be available from iLearn at least the night before the lecture. Students should read the lecture notes before the lecture. All teaching materials will be available via iLearn.

References that may be useful

  • Wackerly, D. D., Mendenhall, W., Scheaffer, R. L. Mathematical Statistics with Applications (4th,5th, 6th or 7th Editions)
  • Ross, S. A First Course in Probability, Pearson (5th, 6th, 7th, 9th or 9th Editions)
  • Ward, M. D. and Gundlach, E. (2016) Introduction to Probability, W. H. Freeman and Company
  • Kinney, J.J. (1997) Probability - An Introduction with Statistical Applications, John Wiley and Sons
  • Scheaffer R.L. (1994) Introduction to Probability and Its Applications, (2nd Edition) Duxbury Press
  • Sincich,T., Levine, D.M., Stephan, D. (1999) Practical Statistics by Example using Microsoft Excel

Technology Used and Required

iLearn

There will be an iLearn site for this unit where weekly information, online discussions, lecture notes, iLectures, practice exercises and solutions will be posted.

Students are required to login to iLearn using their Student ID Number and myMQ Portal Password (note, information about how to get hold of your password is provided by the weblink https://ilearn.mq.edu.au). You can only access the material if you are enrolled in the unit.

Software

We will be using Microsoft Office for Windows (especially Excel), R and Wolfram Alpha, freely available online.

Audio/Video recordings of lectures will be available on iLearn soon after the lecture is delivered.

Course notes are available on iLearn before the lecture. Students should familiarise themselves with the notes before the lecture and bring a copy (in paper or electronic form) to class.

Teaching and Learning Strategy 

Lectures

Lectures begin in Week 1. STAT6183 students should attend 3 hours per week. The lecture notes will be available on iLearn before the lecture.

SGTA Classes

SGTA classes begin in Week 2 and are based on work from the previous week’s lecture. The aim of SGTAs is to apply techniques learnt in lectures to solve problems using a statistical package. The material is available on iLearn.

Additional Exercises

Additional exercises may also be made available on iLearn. It is expected that students will attempt all questions. The exercises will not be discussed during the SGTA classes, although some may be discussed during the lectures. A solution will be made available on the website.

Unit Schedule

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update

The unit schedule/topics and any references to on-campus delivery below may no longer be relevant due to COVID-19. Please consult iLearn for latest details, and check here for updated delivery information: https://ask.mq.edu.au/account/pub/display/unit_status

Week Topic Task Due
1 Experiments, sample spaces, Probability Rules, Permutations and Combinations.  
2 Conditional Probability. Independence, Bayes’ Theorem.  
3 Random Variables. Probability Functions, Discrete Probability Distributions, Cumulative Distribution functions, Expected value and Variance. Moments.  
4 Important Discrete Distributions: Bernoulli, Binomial, Geometric and Poisson. Test 1
5 Moment generating functions. More Discrete Distributions: Negative Binomial and Hypergeometric.  
6 Introduction to Continuous random variables. Cumulative distribution function.  
7 Continuous Distributions: Uniform, Exponential.  
8 Normal distribution.  
9 Continuous Distributions: Gamma and Beta Distributions. Chebyshev’s Theorem.  
10 Sampling Distributions. Test 2
11 Joint Distributions: Discrete and Continuous cases.   
12 Introduction to Markov Chains. States, Transition probabilities, State vectors, Equilibrium, Absorbing States. Assignment
13 Revision.  

Policies and Procedures

Macquarie University policies and procedures are accessible from Policy Central (https://staff.mq.edu.au/work/strategy-planning-and-governance/university-policies-and-procedures/policy-central). Students should be aware of the following policies in particular with regard to Learning and Teaching:

Students seeking more policy resources can visit the Student Policy Gateway (https://students.mq.edu.au/support/study/student-policy-gateway). It is your one-stop-shop for the key policies you need to know about throughout your undergraduate student journey.

If you would like to see all the policies relevant to Learning and Teaching visit Policy Central (https://staff.mq.edu.au/work/strategy-planning-and-governance/university-policies-and-procedures/policy-central).

Student Code of Conduct

Macquarie University students have a responsibility to be familiar with the Student Code of Conduct: https://students.mq.edu.au/study/getting-started/student-conduct​

Results

Results published on platform other than eStudent, (eg. iLearn, Coursera etc.) or released directly by your Unit Convenor, are not confirmed as they are subject to final approval by the University. Once approved, final results will be sent to your student email address and will be made available in eStudent. For more information visit ask.mq.edu.au or if you are a Global MBA student contact globalmba.support@mq.edu.au

Student Support

Macquarie University provides a range of support services for students. For details, visit http://students.mq.edu.au/support/

Learning Skills

Learning Skills (mq.edu.au/learningskills) provides academic writing resources and study strategies to help you improve your marks and take control of your study.

The Library provides online and face to face support to help you find and use relevant information resources. 

Student Services and Support

Students with a disability are encouraged to contact the Disability Service who can provide appropriate help with any issues that arise during their studies.

Student Enquiries

For all student enquiries, visit Student Connect at ask.mq.edu.au

If you are a Global MBA student contact globalmba.support@mq.edu.au

IT Help

For help with University computer systems and technology, visit http://www.mq.edu.au/about_us/offices_and_units/information_technology/help/

When using the University's IT, you must adhere to the Acceptable Use of IT Resources Policy. The policy applies to all who connect to the MQ network including students.

Changes since First Published

Date Description
18/02/2020 Amendments to the assessment tasks were updated in the CMS.