Notice
As part of Phase 3 of our return to campus plan, most units will now run tutorials, seminars and other small group activities on campus, and most will keep an online version available to those students unable to return or those who choose to continue their studies online.
To check the availability of face-to-face and online activities for your unit, please go to timetable viewer. To check detailed information on unit assessments visit your unit's iLearn space or consult your unit convenor.
Unit convenor and teaching staff |
Unit convenor and teaching staff
Unit Convenor | Lecturer
Dr. Prashan Karunaratne
Contact via "Contact the Unit Convenor" link on iLearn.
4ER 243
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Credit points |
Credit points
10
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Prerequisites |
Prerequisites
130cp at 1000 level or above including (STAT150 or STAT1250 or STAT170 or STAT1170 or MKTG216 or MGMT2016)
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Corequisites |
Corequisites
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Co-badged status |
Co-badged status
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Unit description |
Unit description
This unit explores business forecasting by considering the planning process of the organisation, the environment in which business forecasts are made, prediction of key variables using qualitative and quantitative information, and the practical considerations of forecast implementation. Quantitative predictions will generally make use of spreadsheets and simple statistical procedures that can be easily applied in the business environment.
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Information about important academic dates including deadlines for withdrawing from units are available at https://www.mq.edu.au/study/calendar-of-dates
On successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:
Assessment criteria for all assessment tasks will be provided on the unit iLearn site.
It is the responsibility of students to view their marks for each within-session-assessment on iLearn within 20 days of posting. If there are any discrepancies, students must contact the unit convenor immediately. Failure to do so will mean that queries received after the release of final results regarding assessment tasks (not including the final exam mark) will not be addressed.
Late submissions and extensions
Tasks 10% or less – No extensions will be granted. Students who have not submitted the task prior to the deadline will be awarded a mark of 0 for the task, except for cases in which an application for special consideration is made and approved.
Tasks above 10% - No extensions will be granted. There will be a deduction of 10% of the total available marks made from the total awarded mark for each 24 hour period or part thereof that the submission is late (for example, 25 hours late in submission – 20% penalty). This penalty does not apply for cases in which an application for special consideration is made and approved. No submission will be accepted after solutions have been posted.
Name | Weighting | Hurdle | Due |
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Online quizzes | 10% | No | Week 7 & 10 |
Critical Thinking - Applying forecasting to problems - Two Reports | 40% | No | 26th Apr & 24th May |
Final Examination | 50% | No | University Exam Period |
Assessment Type 1: Quiz/Test
Indicative Time on Task 2: 10 hours
Due: Week 7 & 10
Weighting: 10%
There will be two online quizzes that involve a range of multiple choice and/or short answer style questions. You will be making calculations and recommendations.
Assessment Type 1: Case study/analysis
Indicative Time on Task 2: 30 hours
Due: 26th Apr & 24th May
Weighting: 40%
Students will submit two reports, of between 500-750 words each, as well as numerical answers submitted through iLearn, addressing the presented problem/s and/or issues. Your ability to think critically will be assessed.
Assessment Type 1: Examination
Indicative Time on Task 2: 15 hours
Due: University Exam Period
Weighting: 50%
An online open book exam of 2 hours duration (plus 10 minutes reading time) will be undertaken during the University Examination period.
1 If you need help with your assignment, please contact:
2 Indicative time-on-task is an estimate of the time required for completion of the assessment task and is subject to individual variation
Classes
Number and length of classes: 3 hours teaching per week, consisting of 1 x 2 hour lecture and 1 x 1 hour tutorial. Tutorials begin in Week 2.
Classes may be face-to-face or online depending on your choice of timetable and the prevailing public health advise due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The timetable for classes can be found on the University web site at: https://timetables.mq.edu.au/2021/
Recommended Texts and/or Materials
You do not need to buy these books. Handouts of readings that cover similar material will be distributed via iLearn.
Hanke, John E & Wichern, Dean W, (2013), Business Forecasting, (International Edition) Pearson, (9th Edition) ISBN: 9781292023007, ISBN 10: 1292023007
Also available as a Kindle book.
The library has complimentary electronic copies where a certain number of users can access the book at the same time.
Additional readings
Hyndman, Rob J and Athanasopoulos, George (2014), Forecasting: principles and practice, OTexts Online: https://www.otexts.org/fpp/
Technology Used and Required
Students will learn to use Microsoft Excel (compulsory) and MINITAB (optional).
Unit Web Page
The web page for this unit can be found at: iLearn http://ilearn.mq.edu.au
Teaching and Learning Strategy
This unit is lecture- and tutorial-based. Typically, the class-time structure will be like this:
Lecture notes will be posted before each lecture on iLearn
Passing the Unit
Students must obtain a mark of 50% to pass the unit.
There are no other hurdle requirements for passing the unit.
Week/s |
Lecture Topics Covered |
Chapter(s) |
Other Information |
Week 1 |
Introduction to Forecasting in Management
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Hanke & Wichern (H & W) Ch. 1
Hyndman & Athanasopoulos (H & A) Ch. 1 |
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Week 2 |
The Forecasting Environment
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H & W Ch. 2, 3, 5 H & A Ch. 2 |
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Weeks 3 - 6 |
Introduction to Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
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H & W Ch. 4, 5 H & A Ch. 2, 7
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Incorporating Steps and Trends
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H & W Ch. 4, 5 H & A Ch. 7 |
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Exploring Seasonality
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H & W Ch. 4, 5 H & A Ch. 6, 7 |
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Weeks 7 - 9 |
Regression Models (I)
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H & W Ch. 6, 7 H & A Ch. 4, 5 |
Quiz 1 in Week 7 - see iLearn for day and time Case Study Report 1 due Monday, 26th April, 11:59pm Sydney time |
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Regression Models (II)
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H & W Ch. 7, 8 H & A Ch. 4, 5, 9 |
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Week 10 |
Business Indicators
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Quiz 2 in Week 10 - see iLearn for day and time |
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Week 11 |
Judgmental Forecasting (I)
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H & W Ch. 10 H & A Ch. 3 |
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Judgmental Forecasting (II)
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H & W Ch. 10 H & A Ch. 3 |
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Week 12 |
Judgmental Forecasting and Forecast Adjustments (I)
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H & W Ch. 10 H & A Ch. 3 |
Case Study Report 2 due Monday, 24th May, 11:59pm Sydney time |
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Judgmental Forecasting and Forecast Adjustments (II)
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H & W Ch. 10, 11 H & A Ch. 3 |
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Week 13 |
Revision Exam Preparation |
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Unit information based on version 2021.02 of the Handbook