Unit convenor and teaching staff |
Unit convenor and teaching staff
Unit Convenor
Con Korkofingas
Contact via con.Korkofingas@mq.edu.au
E4A 629
Monday 1:00 to 3:00 pm
Tutor
Joe Pitt
Tutor
Teresa Corsalini
Tutor
Brenton Price
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Credit points |
Credit points
3
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Prerequisites |
Prerequisites
((39cp at 100 level or above) or (6cp in BBA or BUS units at 200 level)) and (STAT150 or STAT170 or MKTG216)
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Corequisites |
Corequisites
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Co-badged status |
Co-badged status
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Unit description |
Unit description
This unit explores business forecasting by considering the planning process of the organisation, the environment in which business forecasts are made, prediction of key variables using qualitative and quantitative information, and the practical considerations of forecast implementation. Quantitative predictions will generally make use of spreadsheets and simple statistical procedures that can be easily applied in the business environment.
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Information about important academic dates including deadlines for withdrawing from units are available at https://www.mq.edu.au/study/calendar-of-dates
On successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:
Name | Weighting | Hurdle | Due |
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Quizzes | 20% | No | Weeks 6, 10 |
Case Study/Report | 30% | No | Part 1: 18/4, Part 2: 2/6 |
Final Examination | 50% | No | University Examination Period |
Due: Weeks 6, 10
Weighting: 20%
There will be two within-semester quizzes held in tutorials in weeks 6 and 10. The first test will cover all material from weeks 1 - 4 inclusive while the second quiz will cover all material from weeks 5 to 8 inclusive. Both within-semester quizzes will consist of 30 multiple-choice questions. Each quiz will be worth 10% of the total mark in this unit.
Students need to sit the test in the tutorial in which they are officially enrolled. Failure to sit the test in the officially enrolled tutorial (unless permission has been obtained prior to the test week from the unit co-ordinator) will lead to zero marks for the quiz.
Due: Part 1: 18/4, Part 2: 2/6
Weighting: 30%
This assessment will be a written report based around a comprehensive business forecasting project. You will need to determine and find suitable empirical data which will be then be used as the basis of relevant business forecasts and associated recommendations.
This is, in general, a group assignment although there will be a separate individual component within the group assessment framework. Groups will be of either three (3) or four (4) participants with members in each group required to be enrolled in the same tutorial. You may not do this case study report individually. The number of people in the group will not be a consideration for the awarding of marks in the case study report. Groups will be formed in the tutorials in Week 2 of the semester.
The Case Study report submissions will be divided into two distinct components; Each component will be worth 15% of the total Case Study report mark.
Part 1 consists of some preliminary data identification,analysis and provision of basic forecasts and will be done individually by each member of the group. Each student is required to submit their response to Part 1 through Turnitin on the unit website by 11 pm,Tuesday 18th April.
Part 2 will involve the development of further forecasts for relevant business variables based on the empirical data and analysis in Part 1. This is to be done as a group and the analysis required may involve development of scenarios,strategies and provision of suitable recommendations. Each group is required to submit their response (one response only per group) to Part 2 through Turnitin on the unit website by 11 pm, Friday 2nd June.
For both Parts 1 and 2:
Due: University Examination Period
Weighting: 50%
Further details about the final examination will be given later in the semester.
The Macquarie university examination policy details the principles and conduct of examinations at the University. The policy is available at: http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/examination/policy.htm
Number and length of classes: 3 hours face-to-face teaching per week, consisting of 1 x 2 hour lecture and 1 x 1 hour tutorial. The timetable for classes can be found on the University web site at: http://www.timetables.mq.edu.au/
Prizes for this unit (if applicable). http://www.businessandeconomics.mq.edu.au/undergraduate_degrees/prizes_scholarships
You do not need to buy these books. Occasionally, handouts thereof might be distributed in class.
Hanke, John E & Wichern, Dean W, (2013), Business Forecasting, (International Edition) Pearson, (9th Edition) ISBN: 9781292023007, ISBN 10: 1292023007
Also available as a Kindle book.
Additional readings
Hyndman, Rob J and Athanasopoulos, George (2014), Forecasting: principles and practice, OTexts Online: https://www.otexts.org/fpp/
Students will learn to use spreadsheets (MS-Excel) and MINITAB.
The web page for this unit can be found at: iLearn http://ilearn.mq.edu.au
This unit is lecture- and tutorial-based. Typically, the class-time structure will be like this:
Lecture notes will be posted before each lecture on iLearn
Lecture/Date |
Lecture Topics Covered |
Chapter(s) |
Other Information |
1 (1st Mar) |
Introduction to Forecasting in Management
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Hanke & Wichern (H & W) Ch. 1
Hyndman & Athanasopoulos (H & A) Ch. 1 |
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2 (8th Mar) |
The Forecasting Environment
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H &W Ch. 2, 3, 5 H & A Ch. 2 |
Tutorial 1 – Introduction to Forecasting
Group Formation |
3 (15th Mar) |
Introduction to Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
• Naïve, MA, SES |
H &W Ch. 4, 5 H & A Ch. 2, 7
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Tutorial 2 – Introduction to the Data Environment |
4 (22nd Mar) |
Incorporating Steps and Trends • ARSSES model • Prediction of trends
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H &W Ch. 4, 5 H & A Ch. 7 |
Tutorial 3 – Elementary smoothing |
5 (29th Mar) |
Exploring Seasonality
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H &W Ch. 4, 5 H & A Ch. 6, 7 |
Tutorial 4 – Trend smoothing and extrapolation |
6 (5th Apr) |
Regression Models (I)
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H &W Ch. 6, 7 H & A Ch. 4, 5 |
Quiz 1 in Tutorials (covers weeks 1-4 inclusive, 30 MC questions) |
7 (12th Apr) |
Regression Models (II)
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H &W Ch. 7, 8 H & A Ch. 4, 5, 9 |
Tutorial 5 – Seasonal Models |
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SEMESTER BREAK |
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Group Project (Part 1) due Tuesday, 18th April, 11pm Sydney time) |
8 (3rd May) |
Business Indicators
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Tutorial 6 – Regression (1)
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9 (10th May) |
Judgmental Forecasting (I) • Judgmental methods
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H &W Ch. 10 H & A Ch. 3 |
Tutorial 7 – Regression (2), Leading Indicators |
10 (17th May) |
Judgmental Forecasting (II)
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H &W Ch. 10 H & A Ch. 3 |
Quiz 2 in Tutorials (covers weeks 5-8 inclusive, 30 MC questions) |
11 (24th May) |
Judgmental Forecasting (III)
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H &W Ch. 10 H & A Ch. 3 |
Tutorial 8 – Group Project (Part 2) Direction and Assistance |
12 (31st May) |
Judgmental Forecasting (IV)
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H &W Ch. 10, 11 H & A Ch. 3 |
Tutorial 9 – Judgmental Forecast Methods
Group Project (Part 2) due Friday, 2nd June, 11pm Sydney time)
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13 (7th Jun) |
Revision, Exam Preparation |
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No tutorial this week |
Macquarie University policies and procedures are accessible from Policy Central. Students should be aware of the following policies in particular with regard to Learning and Teaching:
Academic Honesty Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/academic_honesty/policy.html
Assessment Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/assessment/policy_2016.html
Grade Appeal Policy http://mq.edu.au/policy/docs/gradeappeal/policy.html
Complaint Management Procedure for Students and Members of the Public http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/complaint_management/procedure.html
Disruption to Studies Policy (in effect until Dec 4th, 2017): http://www.mq.edu.au/policy/docs/disruption_studies/policy.html
Special Consideration Policy (in effect from Dec 4th, 2017): https://staff.mq.edu.au/work/strategy-planning-and-governance/university-policies-and-procedures/policies/special-consideration
In addition, a number of other policies can be found in the Learning and Teaching Category of Policy Central.
Macquarie University students have a responsibility to be familiar with the Student Code of Conduct: https://students.mq.edu.au/support/student_conduct/
Results shown in iLearn, or released directly by your Unit Convenor, are not confirmed as they are subject to final approval by the University. Once approved, final results will be sent to your student email address and will be made available in eStudent. For more information visit ask.mq.edu.au.
Macquarie University provides a range of support services for students. For details, visit http://students.mq.edu.au/support/
Learning Skills (mq.edu.au/learningskills) provides academic writing resources and study strategies to improve your marks and take control of your study.
Students with a disability are encouraged to contact the Disability Service who can provide appropriate help with any issues that arise during their studies.
For all student enquiries, visit Student Connect at ask.mq.edu.au
For help with University computer systems and technology, visit http://www.mq.edu.au/about_us/offices_and_units/information_technology/help/.
When using the University's IT, you must adhere to the Acceptable Use of IT Resources Policy. The policy applies to all who connect to the MQ network including students.
Our graduates will also be capable of creative thinking and of creating knowledge. They will be imaginative and open to experience and capable of innovation at work and in the community. We want them to be engaged in applying their critical, creative thinking.
This graduate capability is supported by:
Our graduates will take with them the intellectual development, depth and breadth of knowledge, scholarly understanding, and specific subject content in their chosen fields to make them competent and confident in their subject or profession. They will be able to demonstrate, where relevant, professional technical competence and meet professional standards. They will be able to articulate the structure of knowledge of their discipline, be able to adapt discipline-specific knowledge to novel situations, and be able to contribute from their discipline to inter-disciplinary solutions to problems.
This graduate capability is supported by:
We want our graduates to be capable of reasoning, questioning and analysing, and to integrate and synthesise learning and knowledge from a range of sources and environments; to be able to critique constraints, assumptions and limitations; to be able to think independently and systemically in relation to scholarly activity, in the workplace, and in the world. We want them to have a level of scientific and information technology literacy.
This graduate capability is supported by:
Our graduates should be capable of researching; of analysing, and interpreting and assessing data and information in various forms; of drawing connections across fields of knowledge; and they should be able to relate their knowledge to complex situations at work or in the world, in order to diagnose and solve problems. We want them to have the confidence to take the initiative in doing so, within an awareness of their own limitations.
This graduate capability is supported by:
We want to develop in our students the ability to communicate and convey their views in forms effective with different audiences. We want our graduates to take with them the capability to read, listen, question, gather and evaluate information resources in a variety of formats, assess, write clearly, speak effectively, and to use visual communication and communication technologies as appropriate.
This graduate capability is supported by:
There have been some changes from the previous offering in S1,2016:
The order of lectures has been slightly changed with lectures on ARIMA being deleted and an initial lecture on Judgemental Forecasting moved to later in the semester.
In terms of assessment components there have been some changes.
This unit teaches Business Forecasting principles that can be applied in a global context.
Sustainability issues are embedded in our discussions of equity, privacy and ethics throughout the progress of this unit.